Central Oregon Housing Market Report September 2022
In this month’s real estate market update for Central Oregon, a subtle shift in Bend real estate could mean a leveling-out, making it a more stable environment for both buyers and sellers. Read on for the latest news we’ve gathered from this month’s MLS and Beacon report data, and be sure to watch David Keyte’s summary video for the full rundown.
What does the September MLS data for Bend indicate?
MLS data is up-to-date info on what the market is doing presently. This month, we can see that total inventory is down at 393 homes, which is a reflection of transactions going up. The median days on market (DOM) are up to 58 days, however, the days on the market for closed homes is 15 days. What does that mean?
It means the homes sitting on the market for 2 months started out overpriced and have not come down to the accurate price—even with the 7% average price reduction. However, as we see in the Beacon Report, homes priced correctly ARE selling in 15 days on average. That’s good news for local sellers.
While the total number of price reductions has decreased by 6.99%, the percentage of those reductions rose to 7.27%.
MLS Data Update September 30, 2022
As you can see when comparing the September 12 MLS chart (first graphic) to the September 30 chart (second graphic), the MLS data is illustrating the slow-down trends of the local housing market. As of 9/30/22, there are more houses on the market. More houses have reduced their prices and are offering deeper price reductions. And finally, median days on market ticked up past two months. Now we are not quite comparing like-for-like, as we adjusted the price range of the most recent data down $100K to try to keep an eye on the majority of local listings, but the trends are useful for buyers to watch.
September Beacon Report for Central Oregon
The Beacon report reflects data from homes closed in the previous month. August results show us median home prices went down, and days on the market went up. However, we get a fuller understanding of the market when we look at months of inventory, which dropped 5.3% since July. How is that possible? As we stated with the MLS data, homes that are well-priced, with the current market, are selling in 15 days on average, but those that are not priced right are staying on the market much longer. Be sure to watch David Keyte’s Market Update video (above) for a more detailed explanation.
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We are committed to keeping our clients in the know. Our team pulls data from multiple industry expert resources to get you the full story of what is happening in the market. If you have any questions about how these changes might affect your situation, please reach out to us!
Video Transcript
00:01 Hey everybody. David Keyte here with Bend Relo with your market update. This first graph we have today is interest rates.
00:09 As you can see, they’ve come back up from the lows in early August 5% we’re up about closer to 5.5 a little over 5.5 right now. Definitely seeing some volatility but we do have a pretty good range of 5 as the floor and 6 kinda has the upper bound. So we’re watching that.
00:29 But it’s nice to have some stabilization in the last three months as opposed to steady increases which we were seeing in the beginning of the year. Here’s mortgage rates projections from the major players in mortgage world Freddie mac, Fannie Mae. As you can see this is for Q four their project their average projection is going down.
00:51 So not a lot though. So people are expecting rates to come down soon. One of the things that we’re hearing in the industry a lot is marry the house date the interest rate, date the mortgage.
01:07 The reason for this is you can always re-fi. So if you lock into a rate at 6% today you can always if it goes down to 5 or 4.5 just refinance out of it. This is a national-level chart.
01:23 We’re seeing appreciation slowing. That’s not the same as depreciation. These are annualized.
01:33 Home price appreciation for each month of the year nationally. And wow this is a lot like 20% annualized appreciation. And now we’re seeing closer to 15% in July One of my favorite graphs is we just got this beacon report and there’s tons of really good stuff at nuggets in here to look at to understand where we’re at in the market.
02:00 A lot of nuance that we’re gonna talk about right now. So my mouse is in January. We started the year at 683 median purchase price we’re now at 7 17.
02:13 This is an increase on the year of 2020 of about 4.5%. So medium purchase prices are up 4.5%. However, at the highs, we were up closer to 15%. Now 15% in three months is not healthy.
02:30 It’s not how real estate moves on the market that moves 5-10% a year historically, 15% 3 months. Not healthy. So seeing modest appreciation and bend on the year.
02:45 Then this price medium price per square foot is we came in the year at 355 a square foot and we’re currently at 355 a square foot. So that price per square foot number is unchanged. And as you can see the trend line is still intact here.
03:02 We’re still on an upward trend. So this is really an attractive price per square foot compared to. 389 in February March.
03:13 Days on market. Days on market has 15 still and for August this is how long it takes a property to list and then go pending.
03:27 15 days. We’re gonna talk about why that’s such an interesting number. When we look at the mls sheet the average listing on the mls has been on the market for 58 days.
03:41 So why the discrepancy we’ll talk about that in a second. Here’s the number of transactions happening in Bend, ticked up to 1 89.
03:49 This august that’s down about 20% from last august where we’re at 229 months of supply. This is our inventory for sale. We peaked in July at 2.06 months of inventory. Inventory actually went down in August.
04:08 So this is a bullish signal. The rate of increase has stopped it’s actually decreased. And we’re gonna talk about that why we think some of these things are happening.
04:20 We look at this slide. Okay, there’s 393 single-family homes in bend for sale. Of those 393 243, over half have done price reductions.
04:36 Those average price reduction is seven and a quarter percent. Average days on market is 58 days. So medium. So the discrepancy between the listings on the mls that are sitting for 58 days.
04:53 And the fact that all the homes almost 200 homes closed with 15 days time on market is telling us that the stuff is trading that’s price right? It’s trading quickly. 15 days.
05:08 The stuff that’s on this mls is all overpriced, not all, the stuff that’s been on 58 days is overpriced. So The dynamic at play is that it’s taken a long time for sellers to understand what’s happening. And part of why we do these market updates as we want to educate the population on what’s going on.
05:28 The sellers who saw the look at the comps for March and April and they say well my house is nicer than that house. I want that price and more.
05:37 They’re not taking into account that the market was 10-15% higher in March. So when we’re looking at comps we have to take that number and reduce from that number which is the opposite of what we’ve done for the last 2 to 3 years in the upward market you’re adding a percent or two because the time that’s gone by now we’re subtracting from the comps. The quicker people can realize that the better they’re gonna better success they’re gonna have list in their house. Because there’s a risk there’s an opportunity risk to overpricing. What I mean by that is if you overprice and don’t get it sold you wait two months.
06:16 Well guess what the market’s been doing the last two months goes down a couple of percents. So it’s actually 3% is the average monthly decline over the last three months. So, if you spend two months overpriced now the market’s 6% lower.
06:35 So understanding what the risk is in miss-pricing I think is the most critical part to having a successful relocation if you’re selling and then buying. Bottom line less inventory than last month. Homes priced correctly are selling in 15 days on average.
07:00 There’s great opportunities for buyers much more pleasant shopping experience although people aren’t giving away houses super lowball offers are still being ignored. But there is some wiggle room and time to think about your purchase when you’re shopping for a home. Right now sellers the people who are pricing correctly are having a lot of success because then once they get a pending they’re able to go out and shop and they’re buying a much nicer house for much less than they would have been three months ago.
07:35 So if you guys have any questions I’d like to chat about the market or your situation feel free to reach out to myself for another Bend Relo team member.