While winter moves into Central Oregon, real estate hawks expect the housing market to slow down, which it is doing—but there’s good news for buyers and sellers. Mortgage Rates took a fall last week and now winter is taking on a different tone. 

The November 2023 Beacon Report for Central Oregon shows that aside from the number of transactions, every metric is nearly unchanged month over month. However, this isn’t necessarily a negative thing–read more to find out insights about the November 2023 Housing Market Report for Central Oregon.

November 2023 Beacon Report for Central Oregon

As a quick reminder, The Beacon Report for November 2023, shows various sets of data on closed homes in October.

While the median price has increased ever so slightly, the days on the market have not changed at all. This means that houses are not selling quicker, but they are also not selling any slower than they were in September 2023. 

Taking a glance at the month of October over the last few years, the data from 2023 shows a decrease in total closings, changing from 197 in 2021, down to 160 in 2022 and only 121 in 2023. Each year this number decreases slightly and could be attributed to increased mortgage rates, limited inventory, and high housing prices, amongst other factors.

In short, this is a 39% drop in transactions over the 2-year rate tightening cycle, so you can see the dramatic impact mortgage rates play in real estate market activity.

But don’t lose hope! This also means that pent-up sellers and buyers will eventually come back to the market. What things could bring them back? Mortgage rates in the 6’s would likely release much of the demand but time is also a considerable factor. As time goes on, people will move if they need to, regardless of the rates. It may even mean a downgrade in expectations but life events are the biggest driver of real estate–not interest rates.

MLS Data for November 2023

Heads up, it is important to remember that the MLS Data is more up-to-date than the Beacon Report, and it also represents all the properties on the market, unlike the Beacon Report, which only represents the properties that sold.

While it doesn’t look too different from last month’s MLS data, there are still helpful understandings to be found here: 

• The number of listings with changed prices grew by nearly 11% in October, meaning that sellers are eager to sell their homes and are willing to drop their prices at least by 6%
• The median days on the market remain almost flat month after month, with an increase of only 3 days

A little over half of the total listings have changed prices, which increases interest in potential buyers. Our statistics show that houses listed below market value enjoy high showings and offers, while properties listed above market value get very little interest in this market.

Additionally, more accurate pricing on houses increases the number of interested buyers. Houses that are listed 10% over market value often grow stale and may lose potential buyers they could’ve had if their home was listed at the right value.

Buy Smart & Buy This Season

A glimmer of hope: Mortgage rates have sharply dropped by .5%. On October 10th, 2023, the mortgage rates were at 8.03%, and as of November 8th, 2023, they were at 7.41%. That’s a pretty big decrease, which means we may be on a path to more favorable mortgage rates and better buying conditions. 

A tip from the Bend Relo team–for those who can afford it–buy now during the winter pricing pullback prior to spring, when we may see a price increase. Last spring, we saw an 18% jump in housing prices which could be an indication of how 2024 may look.

And sellers, if you can–wait until spring to sell. You are likely able to sell your home for more in the spring, although you will pay more for your replacement property at that time but there will be more listings available.. We’re seeing some substantial deals on houses for sale this winter, which is great for the buyer, but perhaps not ideal for the seller.

We’ll be watching how this slow season plays out going into the spring busy season and how interest rates move over the next few months. Stay tuned for more insights!

For more helpful tips and ways to either buy or sell a home, don’t hesitate to reach out to us and a Bend Relo agent will get in touch with you shortly! 

Read the full Beacon Report for Central Oregon November 2023